Monday, February 4, 2008
5 Feb 2008
Tomorrow's various primaries and caucuses will have Democrats pin the tail on 2,084 convention delegates from 22 states plus American Samoa and "democrats abroad" and Republicans do the same for 1,081 delegates from 21 states.
My brilliant insight is that neither party will have it completely decided tomorrow because there's too much dissention in the ranks (i.e., among voters). Besides, most of the states distribute the delegates according to the percentages of the voting results, not winner-takes-all like the electoral college or anything (an interesting subject for another day). My out-on-a-limb prediction is that it will be an insane day and that several states' results will be very unexpected. How's that for a sure thing?! Anyone care to make a real prediction?
BTW, if McCain ever yells and screams about the electoral college or winner-take-all delegate assignments, someone should tell him to stop. At the moment, he's ahead in delegates by 10 but behind in votes by almost 15% - all because of winner-take-all Florida. If delegates were entirely assigned by percent of votes, which sure seems the right and fair way to do it, Romney would have 86 to McCain's 51, Huckabee's 37 and "other's" 44. If I were Romney, I'd be pretty ticked off right about now.
My brilliant insight is that neither party will have it completely decided tomorrow because there's too much dissention in the ranks (i.e., among voters). Besides, most of the states distribute the delegates according to the percentages of the voting results, not winner-takes-all like the electoral college or anything (an interesting subject for another day). My out-on-a-limb prediction is that it will be an insane day and that several states' results will be very unexpected. How's that for a sure thing?! Anyone care to make a real prediction?
BTW, if McCain ever yells and screams about the electoral college or winner-take-all delegate assignments, someone should tell him to stop. At the moment, he's ahead in delegates by 10 but behind in votes by almost 15% - all because of winner-take-all Florida. If delegates were entirely assigned by percent of votes, which sure seems the right and fair way to do it, Romney would have 86 to McCain's 51, Huckabee's 37 and "other's" 44. If I were Romney, I'd be pretty ticked off right about now.
Labels: 2008 election, people
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