Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Primary tallies
I love making charts. It's some kind of organizational and graphic illness, I think. Anyway, I thought it would be a blast to see whether I could construct an Excel chart that would reveal the bias of various news organizations and, perhaps, the truthfulness of others. But I hadn't realized how utterly bizarrely the primaries and caucuses are run. (By the way, what's happening with Huckabee's entirely justifiable protest about Washington's caucuses being shut down because the organizers said it was late?) I also hadn't realized that party bosses still ruled with strong-arm tactics all these many years after Tammany Hall became a heap of ashes. As a result, plain and simple arithmetical calculations differ so much from what states report as their delegate counts that it is nothing short of astonishing.

The one agreed-upon fact is vote count. What voters did is clear. But that's where it ends. Each states makes its own (often utterly arbitrary) decisions as far as ascribing delegates. You might think it would be obvious. You might think % of votes would determine and equal % of delegates but all I can say, as politely as possible, is "not on your life" and "no way." Plus, for their part, the Republicans have a whole bunch of winner-take-all states so it's impossible to see the real actual so-called will of the people reflected in their delegate counts. The Democrats may be saved in the end by the relatively open situation this year since everyone can see what the votes actually are. They may have to accept that the votes matter enough that reversing the results simply won't work. And perhaps that's what Romney was hoping for and why he "withdrew" rather than stopped.

At about two-thirds through the process, here are the numbers for any rare readers to check out. Perhaps, like me, you will fall to the floor clutching your calculator and gasping for air. What was that about one man, one vote? Not even the delegate totals being divvied up by the "authorities" are the same. Sheesh.






McCain Romney Huckabee Others
Votes 10,424,149 10,978,158 850,156 356,683
Delegates, according to:Arithmetic463* 437* 227 103
CNN 918 286 217 16
NYT 827 142 205 0
AP projection 957 256 254 0
USA Today 942 253 245 14

*to be updated

And if you think that's crazy, check out the Democratic side which at least has the benefit of more proportional assignment of delegates, although it must have more strong-arm party bosses given that many states' results won't be certified until the bosses say they are:






Clinton Obama Edwards Others
Votes 10,424,149 10,978,158 850,156 356,683
Delegates, according to:Arithmetic1002 1160 64 28
CNN 1250 1319 26 0
NYT 1112 1117 12 0
AP Projection 1262 1351 26 0
USA Today 1245 1319 26 0

After that, all I have left to say is uncle.

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