Monday, April 28, 2008
The math
I just did the math using all the various estimates of delegates and superdelegates that Clinton and Obama have and/or might get. Here are a few cogent facts:
-If Ms. Clinton wins every single one of the remaining outstanding delegates, and with the most favorable counts for her, she is still 23 delegates short of the magic 2025 number. Obama needs only slightly more than half of the outstanding delegates to reach the same number.
-If Florida were included, Clinton would need 80% of the remaining delegates to get to 2025. I don't think the DNC can legitimately waive their exclusion of Florida. And, anyway, 80% of what's left is unlikely.
-If Michigan were included, Clinton would eek over the top if she won almost all of the 156 delegates. But if the DNC permits the delegates to be included without an election in which Obama and Edwards participate, it will be an enormous travesty especially in light of their righteous indignation about the Gore-Bush election.
-If Ms. Clinton wins every single one of the remaining outstanding delegates, and with the most favorable counts for her, she is still 23 delegates short of the magic 2025 number. Obama needs only slightly more than half of the outstanding delegates to reach the same number.
-If Florida were included, Clinton would need 80% of the remaining delegates to get to 2025. I don't think the DNC can legitimately waive their exclusion of Florida. And, anyway, 80% of what's left is unlikely.
-If Michigan were included, Clinton would eek over the top if she won almost all of the 156 delegates. But if the DNC permits the delegates to be included without an election in which Obama and Edwards participate, it will be an enormous travesty especially in light of their righteous indignation about the Gore-Bush election.
Labels: 2008 election, numbers
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