--28,841,798 votes have been cast so farDoes it amuse anyone besides me that the Democrats' nomination is in exactly the same situation as the Gore vs. Bush and Nixon vs. Kennedy elections, just in the nomination phase instead of the election? Consider that in 1960, Nixon carried 26 states to Kennedy's 22 . . . but lost the election. Kennedy won the popular vote by only two tenths of one percent with 112,827 votes out of 68,329,141. He had gamed it so well and cleverly that he also had 84 more electoral votes. People say it now and then but it's amazing to realize that a very few votes really can alter the course of history.
--Obama is ahead by 419,259 votes
--Obama has won 13,971,856 votes
--Clinton has won 13,552,597 votes
--Obama has won 48.44% of the votes
--Clinton has won 46.99% of the votes
--Obama has won in 29 states
--Clinton has won in 15 states
--Obama has approximately 1500 convention delegates (not counting superdelegates)
--Clinton has approximately 1350 convention delegates (not counting superdelegates)
--All projections that include superdelegates estimate Obama's delegate count to be higher than Clinton's
--The difference between their delegate counts ranges from 125 to 200
--If the Democrat primaries and caucuses were winner-take-all like most Republicans', Clinton would have 1430 delegates to Obama's 1261 and the nomination would still be undecided by less than 200 delegates.
No matter how you cut it, this is a close (and apparently endless) nomination. I wish there were a knight (a/k/a statesman) who could ride in on a steed and save us from the devisiveness and anger that will almost certainly ensue if/when one of them wins the nomination. Steeds and Knights seem few and hard to find these days, don't they?
Labels: 2008 election, numbers, reflections